SAS® and R

Best of Both Worlds

Djokovic, Federer drawn to meet in Wimbledon semis

with 2 comments

I thought I’d update my old post about the men’s (in Wimbledon’s case, gentlemen’s) draw since now we have one more data point. The Wimbledon draw is out – as Associate Press puts it – “Random as Grand Slam tournament draws are meant to be, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer keep bumping into each other in major semifinals, and it could happen again at Wimbledon.” Could it be anything but random?

Draw data compiled from Wikipedia.

So Federer and Djokovic somehow always end up in the same half – 19 times out of 27 draws in the past seven years. Statistically speaking, what is the probability of 19 times or more being in the same half out of a total of 27? How about less than 3%?

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Written by sasandr

June 22, 2012 at 10:59 pm

Posted in Stat

Tagged with ,

2 Responses

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  1. The likelihood of 19 out of 27 is less than 3 for sure, if the probability of same half is .5. But it may not be .5. One thing is possible: when they are ranked 2, and 3, and when they rae ranked 1 and 4, they are more likely to be assigned to the same half. If we get rid of (2,3) and (1,4) cases, then we have 10/16 same half situations.

    The first probability is
    > 1-pbinom(19,27,.5)
    [1] 0.009578645
    The second probability is
    > 1-pbinom(10,16,.5)
    [1] 0.1050568

    It’s not that small anymore.

    Xiang

    June 28, 2012 at 12:23 pm

  2. Not sure why this is happening, but does look fishy. But Federer and Djokovic probably will be in different half comes USO if nothing big happens to the ranking.

    Annie

    July 13, 2012 at 1:04 pm


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